Judge Punted the Ball on Bail for the Mother of Peace
BREAKING: The judge punted the ball on bail.
A brief factual update on the bail issue: I heard directly from a lawyer who was present in court, and his report was that bail was denied. Recent media coverage, however, is framing the outcome slightly differently, describing the court’s position as a deferral rather than a rejection. That framing is based on the judge’s statement that it is still too early to assess whether the grounds for detention have dissipated, because evidentiary examination has barely begun.
It is also notable who is reporting this and who is not. So far, coverage is limited to wire services and portal syndication. None of Korea’s major legacy newspapers have written original pieces on the bail issue yet, which usually indicates editors are waiting for a clearer inflection point rather than treating this as a final ruling.
Substantively, the judge did not endorse the prosecution’s narrative or rule on the merits. He tied the bail question to the progress of the case and indicated it would be reconsidered after further hearings. Given the amount of political and media noise surrounding this case over the past two weeks, there is little doubt the court is operating under significant pressure. For now, the issue remains open, and if you believe what the judge has said, then the decisive factor will be how the evidence and witness credibility develop in the courtroom.
However, my assessment is that the judge is cautious, risk-averse, and highly aware of external pressure, not just what’s happening in the courtroom. He is prioritizing institutional legitimacy and protecting his own position. He is not closing the door on bail; he is postponing the decision until he believes he can justify his choice after evaluating the witnesses and evidence.
My final take: the judge likely would prefer to grant bail, but found a way to punt the decision due to the pressure coming from the Blue House.
The net result? The Mother of Peace remains in detention. Likely through Christmas and beyond. Church leaders are forced to act cautiously for fear of angering the authorities.